Minggu, 29 Juli 2012

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In the final part of A Love to Remember, Honest and Rich go through the struggle of a normal relationship. With Rich making more money than ever before he starts to slip up. Honest is back to work opening shops and venturing into other business. With a blast from the past coming back will Honest and Rich last or will they move on?

  • Sales Rank: #279948 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2015-07-05
  • Released on: 2015-07-05
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Most helpful customer reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Good read
By Amazon Customer
Was short but she fitted everything in dere, I wasn't thinking the blast from the past would come back she got me wit that one but I really thought her n rich was goin be together smh I used to like him but he started tripping once he was makin more money smh who loyal these days. Honest is the type u wanna wife n know goin down to ride not on ur bad side. Glad she got her happy ending doe

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
AWESOME READ
By Nicki Ervin
Yet another great read from Yanni! This was a perfect ending to this series! Rich was definitely feeling himself a little too much! I couldn't believe how he acted. I used to actually like him and Honest together, but money will always be the cause of problems. I was shocked when the blast from the past came into the picture, but that past was perfect! I couldn't stand Ms.Messy Stripper! She felt the need to make her presence known and for what. Lol. She was too much for me. Honest's mother and brother Zai definitely upset me in some parts.Her mother never seemed to own up to her wrong doings and that was just sad.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
A Little Disappointed
By Amazon Customer
I have to be honest I did not like the change in Rich. He changed completely in this book and I don't think that was explained well. The book starts off with him having an affair and Honest wakes up from her coma already knowing he
was cheating. By the end of the book, he has really flipped out, WTH!! I also was not feeling Cash, his explanation for staying away all that time was not good enough.

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Rabu, 25 Juli 2012

[P748.Ebook] Ebook Free Pharmacoeconomics. Principles and Practice, by Lorenzo Pradelli, Albert Wertheimer

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Pharmacoeconomics. Principles and Practice, by Lorenzo Pradelli, Albert  Wertheimer

Economic issues related to the health sector have been gaining much attention in recent years, and the challenge of providing quality and comprehensive health care to a growing population has become increasingly complex. This book’s aim is to introduce readers to basic principles of economics and to a set of analytical tools of economic evaluations and their application in the health sector. The most important evaluation techniques are explained by examples: cost-minimization analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, cost-utility analysis and cost-benefit analysis.

  • Sales Rank: #328941 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2013-01-08
  • Released on: 2013-01-08
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Back to basics
By Eero Siljander
This is good introduction to any economist who is interested in HTA and the health economics of pharmaceuticals.
The mathematics and statistics are kept as single as possible. Examples illuminate the CBA-, CEA-analysis methods.
Also budget impact analysis is covered.

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
The term represents an effort to combine two different parts ...
By Richard
The term represents an effort to combine two different parts i.e. pharmacy and economy of two different sciences i.e. applied and social. The authors succeed to explain this difficult combination splendidly.

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Senin, 23 Juli 2012

[S191.Ebook] Ebook The Zion Covenant Series 1-4:Vienna Prelude, Prague Counterpoint, Munich Signature, Jerusalem InterludeFrom Bethany House Publishers

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  • Sales Rank: #9630164 in Books
  • Published on: 1990
  • Binding: Paperback

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Sabtu, 21 Juli 2012

[U413.Ebook] Ebook Silk Road, by Eileen Ormsby

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It was the 'eBay of drugs', a billion dollar empire. Behind it was the FBI's Most Wanted Man, a mysterious crime czar dubbed 'Dread Pirate Roberts'. SILK ROAD lay at the heart of the 'Dark Web' - a parallel internet of porn, guns, assassins and drugs. Lots of drugs. With the click of a button LSD, heroin, meth, coke, any illegal drug imaginable, would wing its way by regular post from any dealer to any user in the world. How was this online drug cartel even possible? And who was the mastermind all its low roads led to? This is the incredible true story of Silk Road's rise and fall, told with unparalleled insight into the main players - including alleged founder and kingpin Dread Pirate Roberts himself - by lawyer and investigative journalist Eileen Ormsby. A stunning crime story with a truth that explodes off the page.

  • Sales Rank: #126189 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2014-11-01
  • Released on: 2014-10-28
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review
"Ormsby's investigative journalism shines as she provides a very thorough account of Ulbricbht's rise and fall" - Penthouse Magazine

"Ormsby has delivered a triumph of narrative journalism, meticulously researched and gripping, a skilful mergence of tech jargon with human drama." - The Saturday Paper

"Through her clear rendering of the facts, Ormsby makes the intricacies of the technology involved accessible to even the most technophobic of readers. The tone is conversational and friendly while the content is intriguing and increasingly dark. In her quest to uncover the mystery behind the enigmatic DPR she uncovers a story of subterfuge, replete with conspiracy theories and hidden identities, that is rich with anecdotes." - Newtown Review of Books

"The book is a fascinating expose of this particular aspect of the "dark web" of internet dealings and its subsequent unravelling." - Sydney Morning Herald

"Ormsby is a great writer, giving us gripping accounts from the people who actually used 'Silk Road' to paint an accurate picture of how the website was created, run, and ultimately fell....Silk Road is easily one of the best books I've read this year."� - The Library NZ

"Silk Road is one of the more readable and gripping true crime books of recent times. It is not just Ormsby's knowledge of the brief but spectacular rise and fall of Silk Road that makes for compelling reading, but also the ordering of the material so that the reader has the sense of being educated in the technical and legal background to an astonishing criminal enterprise." - The Australian

Most helpful customer reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Compelling, fascinating, well researched and written account of the rise and fall of Silk Road
By Joel Carpenter
A seriously compelling read. Obviously the author conducted extensive research and immersed herself in the community she is covering. She provides insight above and beyond any other source you may have read about the topic and appears to be one of the few trusted journalists in the 'scene'. What she presents is an unbiased look into the future of the illicit drug trade without the emotion or politics that normally tarnishes the media's own reporting. She also shines a light on the wasted efforts and lack of understanding that backs the conventional 'war on drugs'. Well worth the money if you have any interest in counter cultures, libertarian philosophies or the free trade of illicit substances.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
I really enjoyed this book and thought it to be well researched ...
By Joanne sanders
I really enjoyed this book and thought it to be well researched and written. The language was easy enough for someone not familiar with the ins and outs of the dark web to understand, and would appeal to those with an interest in the events of a world you don't see every day in general public arena.

I really liked the fact the author didn't come across as taking sides. There was explanation without propaganda. The book didn't outright support, but it didn't demonise either. Would highly recommend.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
The best book on darkweb drug dealing so far
By Rasmus Munksgaard Andersen
Ormsby's book is to be considered required reading for both persons interested in darkweb drug markets and academics studying the field. Ormsby has an intimate knowledge of the field, is respected in the communities and and her description of the Silk Road community is insightful. Among her many insights is the best articulation of the highly political nature of Silk Road, a dimension which remains unexplored in most academic studies and articles.

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Jumat, 20 Juli 2012

[O445.Ebook] Get Free Ebook Shades of Deviance: A Primer on Crime, Deviance and Social HarmFrom Routledge

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  • Published on: 2014-04-10
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.00" h x 5.50" w x .75" l, .0 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 276 pages

Review

This fascinating new volume compiled by Rowland Atkinson explores many of the central issues raised by "deviant" conduct, and exposes the problematic nature of the project that is criminology. This is a book about boundaries. The boundaries of: behaviour (transgressive, deviant, harmful or criminal); of public perception (the moral, immoral and amoral); and of social reaction (from censure to denial).

This book will be of huge value to students studying within, or on the boundaries between, criminology, criminological psychology, socio-legal studies and the sociology of deviance.

Professor Tim Newburn, London School of Economics, UK

Shades of Deviance crackles with intellectual energy and the sparks of critical analysis. Chapter to chapter, it traverses a remarkable range of crime and deviance, from the most innocent of acts to the most egregious of offenses. Better yet, Shades of Deviance asks an essential question: which is which?

Jeff Ferrell, Texas Christian University, USA, and University of Kent, UK

Shades of Deviance is a strikingly original collection of thought-provoking work by some of the most creative thinkers in criminology. It pushes boundaries, raises provocative questions, and will surely help to shape debates on deviance and social harm for years to come.

Elliott Currie, University of California, Irvine, USA

Shades of Deviance never loses its focus, it never shies away from a gritty or contested argument and it never allows the reader to lose interest. It is fast paced, moving and emotional. It is based in the here and now of the social world, without forgetting how we got here.

― Darren Woodward, Prison Service Journal

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0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Willard Timothy Austin
Very quick and well wrapped! 5 star

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Rabu, 18 Juli 2012

[K448.Ebook] Fee Download Handbook of Research Methods, by Natalie L. Sproull

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Handbook of Research Methods, by Natalie L. Sproull

Designed for researchers, managers, and administrators who make research-based decisions, as well as students of the social sciences and business. The entire research process, from variables to final report, is covered step by step. Paper edition available 2002.

  • Sales Rank: #4664133 in Books
  • Brand: Brand: Scarecrow Pr
  • Published on: 1995-03
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.00" h x 5.75" w x 1.25" l,
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 449 pages
Features
  • Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author
Natalie L. Sproull is Professor of Management at Western Illinois University.

Most helpful customer reviews

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful.
A classic guide to research
By Mark McCarvill
A classic guide to research, which I've found useful for both work and graduate school. For those of us who like our information neatly and logically ordered in tables and flow-charts, this book entirely fits the bill. Comprehensive and, given the subject matter, quite accessible.

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The Truth About Caffeine, by Marina Kushner

"The Truth About Caffeine" exposes caffeine's darker side that scientists know but that the beverage, confectionery and pharmaceutical industries have tried to suppress. Caffeine is a highly addictive drug, does not offer any nutritional value and has not been proven safe. Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory studies link caffeine to heart disease, pancreas cancer, bladder cancer, hypoglycemia and central nervous system disorders. New & Updated 3rd Edition

  • Sales Rank: #646587 in eBooks
  • Published on: 2014-12-15
  • Released on: 2014-12-15
  • Format: Kindle eBook

Review

  • "A STRAIGHT FORWARD LOOK�AT THE DANGERS OF CAFFEINE AND COFFEE USE AND THE PERILS OF ADDICTION.THIS WELL RESEARCHED-BOOK WILL CERTAINLY OPEN EYES"�--FOREWORD REVIEWS.COM"
  • "DIETARY SUPPLEMENTS DONT�ALWAYS DISCLOSE THEIR TOTAL CAFFEINE CONTENT.OUR LAB TESTS SHOWED THAT SOME PRODUCTS CONTAIN OVER 1200 MG OF CAFFEINE - AS MUCH AS 30 CANS OF COLA"--TOD COOPERMAN,M.D.,CONSUMERLAB.COM
  • "A WAKE-UP CALL�FOR COFFEE AND SODA LOVERS EVERYWHERE! "�--USA BOOK NEWS
  • "ENOUGH EYE-OPENING STORIES TO LEAD TO SERIOUS QUESTIONING OF OUR CAFFEINE INTAKE"
  • --KIRKUS REVIEWS
  • "THE EFFECTS OF CAFFEINE ON THE HUMAN BODY ARE DIVERSE. THIS DRUG CAN CAUSE CENTRAL NERVOUS SYSTEM AND CARDIOVASCULAR DISORDERS AND CAN EXACERBATE OR CAUSE HYPOGLYCEMIA, PEPTIC ULCER DISEASE, AND GASTRO-ESOPHAGEAL REFLUX DISEASE. CURRENT STUDIES UNDERWAY ARE EXAMINING CAFFEINE EFFECTS AS A FETUS-DAMAGING AND GENE-DEVELOPMENT DRUG; THE EFFECTS OF CAFFEINE ON ORAL CONTRACEPTIVES; THE EFFECTS OF CAFFEINE AS A CAUSE OF FIBROCYSTIC BREAST DISEASE. MS. KUSHNER INCLUDES A HELPFUL SECTION LISTING THE CAFFEINE CONTENT OF FAVORITE COFFEES, TEAS, AND SOFT DRINKS. EXCEPT FOR CHOCOLATE, PRODUCTS HIGH IN CAFFEINE HAVE NO NUTRITIONAL VALUE."
  • --LAUREL JOHNSON - MIDWEST BOOK REVIEWS

About the Author
As more people than ever before become aware of the risks of improper diet and nutrition, Marina Kushner delivers her message on the dangers of caffeine to an ever increasing audience anxious to improve its health and well-being.

Her book, The Truth About Caffeine, explores the historical and social impact of caffeine throughout the ages. The book provides vital information to help consumers make informed decisions regarding their caffeine consumption.

Marina Kushner was born in the Soviet Union and raised in Moscow. Kushner received her education at Moscow University, majoring in journalism, and worked for a major Russian newspaper Izvestia. Working under the pressure of daily deadlines, Kushner, as her colleagues, made it through the day on a diet of coffee and cigarettes. In 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kushner decided to take a long-awaited trip to New York City, where she had the good fortune to meet her future husband. She chose to make New York her home. Adjusting to the many obstacles of a new country such as cultural and language barriers, Marina Kushner quickly undertook the task of studying English and creating a life for herself in America. Kushner chose to make her health her #1 priority and became very interested in nutrition. She learned that caffeine consumption is linked to heart disease, pancreas and bladder cancer, hypoglycemia, and central nervous system disorder and decided to write a book in order to help to shed light on the harmful and often under-reported facts about caffeine.�The Truth About Caffeine, published by SCR Books, LLC and released in March 2006, provides readers with insights into the dangers of caffeine. Marina Kushner continues her efforts regarding caffeine awareness. She has contacted the FDA to request that it require manufacturers to list the exact amount of caffeine on products offered to consumers.

Most helpful customer reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
A danger most of us don't even realize we face!
By Oregongirl
This well-researched book is spot on and frankly, alarming. Most of us know some of the risks surrounding excess or prolonged caffeine intake, but The Truth about Caffeine takes it one step further and clarifies how dangerous our `addiction' really is. (Most people drink 3.5 cups of coffee a day!) As a woman whose doctor told her twenty years ago that caffeine was causing painful breast lumps, I was not surprised at all to hear the bitter truth. While I felt that anecdotes would have helped make the message more palatable, the sheer amount of evidence enumerating the amount of medical problems stemming from caffeine use is truly mind-boggling. This audio-book was paced perfectly and the reader's voice was pleasant and clear. This is a great non-fiction book that truly makes one wish to go `cold turkey' and stop this insane addiction.

15 of 20 people found the following review helpful.
Why I'd recommend this one
By Kcorn
I just got through talking to a local Poison Control director for research. Why? Because caffeine poisoning and reactions and concerns about caffeine have prompted many parents, teens and others to call these centers with symptoms that go beyond the usual jittery nerves and buzz of normal caffeine drinkers.

To be honest, I enjoy a daily cup of coffee as much as many people. I'm not a purist and I haven't sworn off caffeine or drinks that contain it. But the scary reality is also that products like potato chips, breath mints and some energy drinks contain as much caffeine as 2 cups of coffee! Potato chips?! Yes, you read that right.

Now imagine this: an unwitting teen or child or even a toddler chugs an energy drink or swallows some breath mints, following that with those high energy potato chips. Without eating or drinking another thing, that person could have high levels of caffeine in his system. With recent reports linking caffeine to higher rates of miscarriage, perhaps it is time to think about what caffeine can do to developing teens and children.

There is no regulation of these products. This book can tell you a bit more about the dangers of caffeine and how and why people might want to think about which foods and drinks and candies contain caffeine.

Again, I'm no purist. But the facts about poison control centers and increased caffeine poisonings are real. People are reacting to caffeine more often. I don't know if they are INTENTIONALLY taking in large amounts of caffeine or simply don't realize that some over the counter meds, breath mints, jelly beans, energy drinks and..yes. even potato chips can contain caffeine. But I tend to think that increased awareness is a good thing. Now you know.

This book will reveal what you can do about the amount of caffeine you injest, how to go through caffeine withdrawal or cut back (if you want)...and more.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
The reasonable warning to all
By Iljoo Lee
I am not a coffee lover. Since it keeps me from sleeping, I only drink it when I need more concentration or I have a overnight work to do. I have been always curious about the mechanism how caffeine works in my nervous system. So, I came to read this book, also to do my research on caffeine related health problems. Right after finishing the book, surprisingly, I kind of felt the initiative to share the information which the book aims to tell with everyone aroud me. Many health related problems, especially those with women, have somehting to do with caffeine. It disturbs our central nervous system and the overdose of caffeine in any forms can result in the lethal diseases like heart disease and cancer. Overwhelming scientific researches on caffeine's danger in the book supports the fact. The book tells me how and why overdose of caffeine harm the human physical and mental health and kindly tells the remedy for that. Also giving the alternatives of caffeine and this book helps us to kick the caffeine habit. It is truly worth to read and recommend to others for our own health.

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Senin, 16 Juli 2012

[M223.Ebook] PDF Download Civil War #1-7, by MARK MILLAR

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Civil War #1-7, by MARK MILLAR

  • Sales Rank: #1146897 in Books
  • Published on: 2007
  • Binding: Comic

Most helpful customer reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Whose side are you on?
By M. Randall
So just whose side are you on? Are you with the strict Iron Man, who seeks for all mutants and superhumans to register with the government. Thus making their identity public. Or are you with the AWOL Captain America, who seeks freedom in his heroism and doesn't think superheroes should have to become "lapdogs" to the government so to speak.

With gorgeous artwork and a GREAT storyline spanning across several Marvel series this year... Civil War is a good reason to become a comic book fan.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Marvel never disappoints!
By Nicole
I'm re-reading all Civil War related comics in prep for the upcoming movies. I wish the ending was such of a cliffhanger tho, still a must read!

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
must read
By SHB MD
Excellent storyline. A true must read for comic fans. I hope the new film lives up to the standard eat here!

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Jumat, 13 Juli 2012

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The Ellen G. White Encyclopedia

  • Sales Rank: #9454557 in Books
  • Published on: 1709
  • Binding: Hardcover

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Kamis, 12 Juli 2012

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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't, by Nate Silver

"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

  • Sales Rank: #23291 in Books
  • Brand: Penguin Press HC, The
  • Published on: 2012-09-27
  • Released on: 2012-09-27
  • Ingredients: Example Ingredients
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 9.56" h x 1.00" w x 6.38" l, 1.63 pounds
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • 544 pages
Features
  • Great product!

Amazon.com Review
Amazon Best Books of the Month, September 2012: People love statistics. Statistics, however, do not always love them back. The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds predictions gone bad thanks to biases, vested interests, and overconfidence. But he also shows where sophisticated forecasters have gotten it right (and occasionally been ignored to boot). In today's metrics-saturated world, Silver's book is a timely and readable reminder that statistics are only as good as the people who wield them. --Darryl Campbell

From Bookforum
Silver doesn't offer one comprehensive theory for what makes a good prediction in his interdisciplinary tour of forecasting. But the book is a useful gloss on the tricky business of making predictions correctly. —Chris Wilson

Review
One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012

“Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise… Lively prose — from energetic to outraged… illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics… [the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen… even the noise makes for a good read.”
—New York Times

“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books

"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and examples are painstakingly researched..."
—Wall Street Journal

"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new book, The Signal and the Noise, is a practical handbook and a philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In other words, everyone."
—The Boston Globe

"Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a primer on making predictions."
—Washington Post
 
“The Signal and the Noise is many things — an introduction to the Bayesian theory of probability, a meditation on luck and character, a commentary on poker's insights into life — but it's most important function is its most basic and absolutely necessary one right now: a guide to detecting and avoiding bullshit dressed up as data…What is most refreshing… is its humility. Sometimes we have to deal with not knowing, and we need somebody to tell us that.”
—Esquire

“[An] entertaining popularization of a subject that scares many people off… Silver’s journey from consulting to baseball analytics to professional poker to political prognosticating is very much that of a restless and curious mind. And this, more than number-crunching, is where real forecasting prowess comes from.”
—Slate

“Nate Silver serves as a sort of Zen master to American election-watchers… In the spirit of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s widely read “The Black Swan”, Mr. Silver asserts that humans are overconfident in their predictive abilities, that they struggle to think in probabilistic terms and build models that do not allow for uncertainty.”
—The Economist

"Silver explores our attempts at forecasting stocks, storms, sports, and anything else not set in stone."
—Wired

"The Signal and the Noise is essential reading in the era of Big Data that touches every business, every sports event, and every policymaker."
—Forbes.com

“Laser sharp. Surprisingly, statistics in Silver’s hands is not without some fun.”
—Smithsonian Magazine
 
“A substantial, wide-ranging, and potentially important gauntlet of probabilistic thinking based on actual data thrown at the feet of a culture determined to sweep away silly liberal notions like ‘facts.’”
—The Village Voice

“Silver shines a light on 600 years of human intelligence-gathering—from the advent of the printing press all the way through the Industrial Revolution and up to the current day—and he finds that it's been an inspiring climb. We've learned so much, and we still have so much left to learn.”
—MLB.com
 


“Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we’d be a lot better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate’s influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see in the numbers—the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the quantitative questions right.  A wonderful read—totally engrossing.”
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
 
“Yogi Berra was right: ‘forecasting is hard, especially about the future.’ In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares about what might happen next.”
—Richard Thaler, co-author of Nudge 
 
“Making predictions in the era of ‘big data’ is not what you might imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that the human element is still essential in predicting advances in science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise enough to learn from our mistakes.”
—Governor Jon Huntsman 
 
“Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise, you'll have much more insight into why some models work well—and also why many don't.  You'll learn to pay more attention to weather forecasts for the coming week—and none at all for weather forecasts beyond that.  Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant.”
—Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and Budget
 
“Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation, expectation, estimation… we wouldn’t have 80 words like this in the English language if it wasn’t central to our lives. We tend not to take prediction seriously because, on some level, we know that we don’t know. Silver shows us how this inevitable part of life goes awry when projected on a grand scale into the murky worlds of politics, science and economics. Dancing through chess, sports, snowstorms, global warming and the McLaughlin Group, he makes a serious and systematic effort to show us how to clean the noise off the signal.”
—Bill James, author of The Bill James Baseball Abstracts
 

Most helpful customer reviews

752 of 785 people found the following review helpful.
Much-needed insight to understand and improve predictive science
By Sitting in Seattle
This is the best general-readership book on applied statistics that I've read. Short review: if you're interested in science, economics, or prediction: read it. It's full of interesting cases, builds intuition, and is a readable example of Bayesian thinking.

Longer review: I'm an applied business researcher and that means my job is to deliver quality forecasts: to make them, persuade people of them, and live by the results they bring. Silver's new book offers a wealth of insight for many different audiences. It will help you to develop intuition for the kinds of predictions that are possible, that are not so possible, where they may go wrong, and how to avoid some common pitfalls.

The core concept is this: prediction is a vital part of science, of business, of politics, of pretty much everything we do. But we're not very good at it, and fall prey to cognitive biases and other systemic problems such as information overload that make things worse. However, we are simultaneously learning more about how such things occur and that knowledge can be used to make predictions better -- and to improve our models in science, politics, business, medicine, and so many other areas.

The book presents real-world experience and critical reflection on what happens to research in social contexts. Data-driven models with inadequate theory can lead to terrible inferences. For example, on p. 162: "What happens in systems with noisy data and underdeveloped theory - like earthquake prediction and parts of economic and political science - is a two-step process. First, people start to mistake the noise for a signal. Second, this noise pollutes journals, blogs, and news accounts with false alarms, undermining good science and setting back our ability to understand how the system really works." This is the kind of insight that every good practitioner acquires through hard-won battles, and continues to wrestle every day both in doing work and in communicating it to others.

It is both readable and technically accurate: it presents just enough model details yet avoids being formula-heavy. Statisticians will be able to reproduce models similar to the ones he discusses, but general readers will not be left out: the material is clear and applicable. Scholars of all stripes will appreciate the copious notes and citations, 56 pages of notes and another 20 pages of index, which detail the many sources. It is also important to note that this is perhaps the best general readership book from a Bayesian perspective -- a viewpoint that is overdue for readable exposition.

The models cover a diversity of areas from baseball to politics, from earthquakes to finance, from climate science to chess. Of course this makes the book fascinating to generalists, geeks, and breadth thinkers, but perhaps more importantly, I think it serves well to develop reusable intuition across domains. And, for those of us who practice such things professionally, to bring stories and examples that we can tell and use to illustrate concepts with the people we inform.

There are three audiences who might not appreciate the book as much. First are students looking for a how-to book. Silver provides a lot of pointers and examples, but does not get into nuts and bolts details or supply foundational technical instruction. That requires coursework in research methods and and statistics. Second, his approach to doing multiple models and interpreting them humbly will not satisfy those who promote a naive, gee-whiz, "look how great these new methods are" approach to research. But then, that's not a problem; it's a good thing. The third non-fitting audience will be experts who desire depth in one of the book's many topic areas; it's not a technical treatise for them and I can confidently predict grumbling in some quarters. Overall, those three audiences are small, which happily leaves the rest of us to enjoy the book.

What would make it better? As a pro, I'd like a little more depth (of course). It emphasizes games a little too much for my taste. And a clearer prescriptive framework could be nice (but also could be a problem for reasons he illustrates). But those are minor points; it hits its target better than any other such book I know.

Conclusion: if you're interested in scientific or statistical forecasting, either as a professional or layperson, or if you simply enjoy general science books, get it. Cheers!

296 of 310 people found the following review helpful.
Great book, and here are some takeaways
By Kindle Customer
Excellent book!!! People looking for a "how to predict" silver bullet will (like some reviewers here) be disappointed, mainly because Silver is too honest to pretend that such a thing exists. The anecdotes and exposition are fantastic, and I wish we could make this book required reading for, say, everyone in the country.

During election season, everyone with a newspaper column or TV show feels entitled to make (transparently partisan) predictions about the consequences of each candidate's election to unemployment/crime/abortion/etc. This kind of pundit chatter, as Silver notes, tends to be insanely inaccurate. But there are also some amazing success stories in the prediction business. I list some chapter-by-chapter takeaways below (though there's obviously a lot depth more to the book than I can fit into a list like this):

1. People have puzzled over prediction and uncertainty for centuries.

2. TV pundits make terrible predictions, no better than random guesses. They are rewarded for being entertaining, and not really penalized for being wrong.

3. Statistics has revolutionized baseball. But computer geeks have not replaced talent scouts altogether. They're working together in more interesting ways now.

4. Weather prediction has gotten lots better over the last fifty years, due to highly sophisticated, large-scale supercomputer modeling.

5. We have almost no ability to predict earthquakes. But we know that some regions are more earthquake prone, and that in a given region an earthquake of magnitude n happens about ten times as often as an earthquake of magnitude (n+1).

6. Economists are terrible at predicting quantities such as next year's GDP. Predictions are only very slightly correlated with reality. They also tend to be overconfident, drastically underestimating the margin of error in their guesses. Politically motivated predictions (such as those released by White House, historically) are even worse.

7. The spread of a disease like the flu is hard to predict. Sometimes we overreact because risk of under-reacting seems greater.

8. A few professional sports gamblers are able to make make a living by spotting meaningful patterns before others do, and being right slightly more than half the time.

9. Kasparov thought he could beat Deep Blue. Couldn't. Interesting tale of humans/computers trying to outguess each other.

10. Nate Silver made a living playing online poker for a few years. When the government tightened the rules, the less savvy players ("fish") stopped playing, and he found he couldn't make money any more. So he started FiveThirtyEight.

11. Efficient market hypothesis: market seems very efficient, but not perfectly so. Possible source of error: most investment is done by institutions, and individuals at these institutions are rewarded based on short term profits. Rational employees may have less career risk when they "bet with the consensus" than when they buck a trend: this may increase herding effects and makes bubbles worse. Note: Nate pointedly does not claim that one can make money on Intrade by betting based on FiveThirtyEight probabilities. But he stresses that Intrade prices are themselves probably heavily informed by poll-based models like the ones on FiveThirtyEight.

12. Climate prediction: prima facie case for anthropic warming is very strong (greenhouse gas up, temperature up, good theoretical reason for former causing latter). But lots of good reason to doubt accuracy of specific elaborate computer models, and most scientists admit uncertainty about details.

13. We failed to predict both Pearl Harbor and September 11. Unknown unknowns got us. Got to watch out for loose Pakistani nukes and other potential catastrophic surprises in the future.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
I liked this book, but, then again, I am a geek.
By RonnieT
Nate Silver is best known for using polling data to call political elections. He missed on the Trump win, but was pretty good up until then.

The Signal and the Noise is a well written, well researched and well reasoned book about forecasting and the various mistakes that prognosticators make. He addresses failures as the inability of economists and others to foresee the bursting of the housing bubble and the chaos it created in 2008. Other themes include easier-to-predict subjects such as future performance of major league baseball players and the success (or not) of poker players. In these later two, he has real world experience as he developed software to predict baseball player performance and made a living as a professional poker player.

Other forecasting areas that he writes about include weather (a modern success); earthquakes (not so much due to difficulties in differentiating the signal from the noise); the spread of infectious diseases (difficult to model due to human behaviour); and climate change (right on warming but uncertain about effects).

One of the over all themes involves the Bayes Theorem. This requires an a priori hunch about the chances of an event that is refined by future observations and experimenting.

There were sections I like more than others, but this may correlate more with my affinity for the subjects rather than Silver's reporting. I particularly like the section on Climate Change research. It was thoughtful and open-minded. As he does throughout the book, he looks at the facts and the stats and interviews the people involved in the research.

See all 1102 customer reviews...

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Selasa, 10 Juli 2012

[N511.Ebook] Ebook 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown, by Simon Johnson, James Kwak

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13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown, by Simon Johnson, James Kwak

In spite of its key role in creating the ruinous financial crisis of 2008, the American banking industry has grown bigger, more profitable, and more resistant to regulation than ever. Anchored by six megabanks whose assets amount to more than 60 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, this oligarchy proved it could first hold the global economy hostage and then use its political muscle to fight off meaningful reform. 13 Bankers brilliantly charts the rise to power of the financial sector and forcefully argues that we must break up the big banks if we want to avoid future financial catastrophes.

Updated, with new analysis of the government’s recent attempt to reform the banking industry, this is a timely and expert account of our troubled political economy.

  • Sales Rank: #114405 in Books
  • Published on: 2011-01-11
  • Released on: 2011-01-11
  • Original language: English
  • Number of items: 1
  • Dimensions: 8.02" h x .74" w x 5.21" l, .55 pounds
  • Binding: Paperback
  • 336 pages

From Publishers Weekly
Though this blistering book identifies many causes of the recent financial crisis, from housing policy to minimum capital requirements for banks, the authors lay ultimate blame on a dominant deregulatory ideology and Wall Street's corresponding political influence. Johnson, professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, and Kwak, a former consultant for McKinsey, follow American finance's rocky road from the debate between Jefferson and Hamilton over the first Bank of the United States through frequent friction between Big Finance and democracy to the Obama administration's responses to the crises. The authors take a highly critical stance toward recent palliative measures, arguing that nationalization of the banks would have been preferable to the bailouts, which have allowed the banks to further consolidate power and resources. Given the swelling size of the six megabanks, the authors make a persuasive case that the financial system cannot be secure until those banks that are too big to fail are somehow broken up. This intelligent, nuanced book might be too technical for general-interest readers, but it synthesizes a significant amount of research while advancing a coherent and compelling point of view. (Apr.)
Copyright � Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Booklist
Johnson and Kwak are the coauthors of The Baseline Scenario, a leading economic blog that pulls no punches when criticizing current economic policy. Just when you thought we were past the worst of the financial crisis, they are here to tell us that another potentially worse meltdown looms ahead in the future, due to the fact that nothing has really changed in the way large financial institutions do business. After the failures of banks like IndyMac, WaMu, and Wachovia, there are now just a handful of banks left that control not only all the money but also the political influence to prevent the kind of reform that is needed to rein in the industry from indulging in the risk-taking practices that got us in trouble in the first place. The government has already set the precedent that these financial institutions are “too big to fail,” thus shifting all the risk onto the American taxpayer if and when the next financial crisis occurs. The authors propose enacting strong legislation that will effectively reduce the size and scope of our national banks and make them “small enough to fail.” --David Siegfried

Review

“An enticing vision of a Wall Street confined… a safer, saner system that has learned from its mistakes.”
—The Wall Street Journal

“A provocative prescription for avoiding a repeat of the panic of 2008 that brought the world to the brink of a second Depression.”
—San Francisco Chronicle

“Two of the sharpest critics of the financial establishment. . . . This book puts America’s banking system on trial.”
—Financial Times

“[13 Bankers] holds an explosive idea: Wall Street has hijacked our government. And without a total overhaul, taxpayers will endlessly foot the bill for its sins.”
—Fortune

“A well-documented appeal to embrace once again Thomas Jefferson’s skepticism of concentrated banking power.”
—The New York Times

“The best explanation yet for how the smart guys on Wall Street led us to the brink of collapse. In the process, Johnson and Kwak demystify our financial system, stripping it down to expose the ruthless power grab that lies at its center.”
—Elizabeth Warren, Professor of Law, Harvard Law School; and Chair, TARP Congressional Oversight Panel

“Too many discussions of the Great Recession present it as a purely economic phenomenon. . . .�Simon Johnson was the first to point out that this was and is a crisis of political economy. His and James Kwak’s analysis of the unholy inter-twining of Washington and Wall Street—a cross between the gilded age and a banana republic—is essential reading.”
—Niall Ferguson, Professor of History, Harvard University; Professor, Harvard Business School; and author of The Ascent of Money

“A disturbing and painstakingly researched account of how the banks wrenched control of government and society out of our hands—and what we can do to seize it back.”
—Bill Moyers

“Essential reading for anyone who wants to understand what comes next for the world economy. Dangerous and reckless elements of our financial sector have become too powerful and must be reined in. If this problem is not addressed there is serious trouble in all our futures.”
—Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University; and Chairman of Roubini Global Economics

“Beautifully written and powerful. Ties the current financial crisis to a cycle of politics as old as the Republic, and to a pathology in our politics that is as profound as any that our Republic has faced. Required reading for the President, and anyone else who cares for this Republic.”
—Lawrence Lessig, Director of the Edmond J. Safra Foundation Center for Ethics, Harvard University

“Johnson and Kwak not only tell us in great detail how the crisis happened and what we must do to avoid another crisis, but they see the deeper political and cultural context that permitted carelessness and excess nearly to break the financial system and plunge us into a depression.”
—Bill Bradley, former U.S. Senator

“A chilling tale of the dangers of concentrated economic, intellectual, and political power. Even if you do not agree with everything the authors have to say, this book makes it clear why ending ‘too big to fail’ and reforming the institutions that perpetuate it are essential for our nation’s future economic prosperity and, more fundamentally, our democratic system.”
—U.S. Senator Jim Bunning

“This book is remarkable in its scope and conclusions. It places changes in financial services and the sector’s regulation over the last twenty years in the context of the last two hundred, and the comparison isn’t favorable. It’s the one book the President (and the Congress) should read.”
—George David, Chairman, United Technologies Corporation

“A timely, informative and important book. You may not agree with all the analysis but the issues so clearly discussed are real, current and vitally important. Financial industry reform must be undertaken soon; inaction, as the authors convincingly argue, would have dangerous consequences. This book explains it all and it’s great reading.”
—Lawrence K. Fish, former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Citizens Financial Group

“As 13 Bankers makes lucidly and compellingly clear, the problem with Wall Street leads directly to the core problem of our democracy. American politics now feeds on money, and Wall Street is where the money is. Unless we separate money from politics, we’ll never be safe from another financial meltdown. In fact, we’ll never really be safe. Read this fine book and get to work.”
—Robert B. Reich, Professor of Public Policy, University of California at Berkeley; Former U.S. Secretary of Labor; and author of Aftershock

Most helpful customer reviews

262 of 276 people found the following review helpful.
A radical, but necessary proposal for revamping the banking and financial systems
By Todd Bartholomew
The desire to analyze the current economic downturn has prompted a deluge of books, most focusing on how to address present and future economic ills and some narrowly focused on individual players and institutions that played a key role in the financial collapse, while others explained the events that led us to this place. "13 Bankers" explains how we got here and more importantly comes up with ideas to prevent a recurrence in the future far more concisely than many others I've read. I could be easy to dismiss Johnson and Kwak's observations as being pessimistic, as makes a very damning indictment of the banking and financial sectors in their past and present conditions and a rather trenchant argument that if these problem are not addressed we likely face another imminent meltdown. The authors give readers a quick concise history of finance and banking in the United States, something that many Americans are woefully unaware of, that points out how banks and financial institutions came to garner so much power over the economy. While efforts have been made to regulate them to varying degrees those regulations have often proven ineffective or are too often enacted AFTER financial catastrophes, much our current situation. The authors rather persuasively argue that the "too big to fail" model and the bailouts of 2008 and 2009 were misguided, arguing that nationalization would have been the better route to go. They continue the argument that the forced mergers, such as Merrill Lynch and Bank of America, were mistakes and instead had created institutions that are now truly to big to fail. In some respects it almost sounds like a Teddy Roosevelt-era trust buster and his argument that these large institutions need to be broken up to diffuse their power certainly makes sense. They also point out the corrosive effect their political clout and donations carry with the political process, hindering further efforts at regulation.

Ultimately "13 Bankers is far more satisfying a read than some recent books on the subject such as The Road from Ruin: How to Revive Capitalism and Put America Back on Top, On the Brink: Inside the Race to Stop the Collapse of the Global Financial System, Rediscovering Values: On Wall Street, Main Street, and Your Street, and America, Welcome to the Poorhouse: What You Must Do to Protect Your Financial Future and the Reform We Need. Yet the sad truth is that while the authors make a compelling argument for change the political establishment in Washington lacks the political will to break up these excessively large institutions. It wouldn't be good for THEIR business, which is getting reelected. While there are efforts afoot in Washington at reform none are as radical a surgery as proposed here, but suffice to say when the next financial catastrophe comes, and the authors argue it IS coming, there is unlikely to be any taxpayer/voter support for ANY bailout in ANY form. If anything "13 Bankers" made me mad as hell and against any future bailout, let alone continuing the current ones in place. What makes me madder still is that the politicians in both parties will likely never consider the radical proposal put forward here. It's a shame that it will take another financial crisis to get Congress and the Executive Branch to really act responsibly.

118 of 125 people found the following review helpful.
Painful History Well Told, and a Bold Prescription for the Future
By Great Faulkner's Ghost
13 Bankers takes us through he painful history of the financial crisis that brought us where we are today and that now makes it so hard to move forward. Simon and Kwak argue that absent reform, another bailout - a more costly bailout with even greater global consequences, millions of jobs lost, and a ruinous impact on our government budget - is unavoidable.

Many Americans apparently do not yet understand how much influence financial institutions have in Washington, DC. Banks used to answer to Washington and were once held accountable for their actions. That is no longer is the case. We have never had such a concentrated banking system in the United States and it's dangerous that so much of our financial future is wrapped up in the big banks.

But the book is not pessimistic. Simon and Kwak offer instances from our history when elected representatives took on concentrated financial power. Each time, most Americans initially did not grasp how the system works, and this proved a major obstacle to reform. But the political leadership was able to explain what needed to be done, and to persuade average Americans that the nature of power in and around the financial sector had become so great and so distorted that something major had to be done.

The book is not anti-finance, but it is very much against the way our biggest banks operate today. The book describes exactly what needs to be done so that what happened in 2008-09 will never be allowed to happen again. Let's hope the prescription works.

302 of 336 people found the following review helpful.
Useful, but not groundbreaking or controversial
By Aaron C. Brown
I'm jumping in here more to vote among the opinions already expressed than to say anything new. I mostly agree with Bruce Lasker. The book is a good straightforward history of how we got to this point in American banking, but is neither deep in its analysis nor strong in its recommendations. If the reviews had been split on this issue I wouldn't have bothered, but since its 9 to 1 against Mr. Lasker, I think it's worth making it 9 to 2.

The opinion in this book is all expressed through word choice. When the authors don't like an increase in lending it is "an orgy of lending." When they do, "banks responded with capital to support growth." People they disagree with "rant," while people they like "point out" or even "prove." But there's never any analysis to back up these opinions, they're painted onto what is basically a factual history. I happen to agree with more than half of their views, but if I didn't, I wouldn't have been convinced by this book. It doesn't help that everything is based on secondary sources, from which the authors take what they like and nothing else.

On the other hand, if you want a factual history, and either agree with the authors or are willing to ignore loaded words, this is an excellent choice. It's well-written, witty, up-to-the-minute and accurate. The opinions are never intrusive, and never foolish. They feel concentrations of banking power are dangerous, which is pretty reasonable, but they ignore the problems caused by the local corruption that grew up in its place. You learn about Jefferson, Madison and Jackson's principled objection to national banking, you won't learn about politicians anxious to create local bank monopolies for their friends and associates, restraining competition in order to maximize profit and control local economies.

You'll learn how deposit insurance and limits on deposit interest reduced bank failures for 50 years, but not how it destroyed middle class savings when high inflation combined with low legal ceilings on interest; you also won't see the terrible customer service that existed until a "shadow" banking system made an end run around the regulations and offered ATM's, high-interest money market accounts, 24-hour-banking, automated deposits, Internet banking and other innovations (when I started working you got a paper paycheck every two weeks that you had to take to a physical bank on your lunch hour as they were open only 9 to 3 on weekdays and the tellers took the same lunch hour as the office workers so you didn't eat lunch on payday, no food allowed in the bank). Sneaky overcharging and predatory lending loom large in this book, with no hint of the advantage to customers when fixed commissions were smashed or companies were forced to improve accounting disclosure.

Wall Street is always the villain, local banks that lend only to their boards of directors and pals and support the local political machine, are whitewashed. The entire S&L crisis is blamed on Wall Street sharpies taking advantage of sleepy local bankers, you won't hear that virtually the entire loss was from commercial lending by oil-patch banks whose strong political connections ran through Texas, not New York. You'll read how Wall Street money flooded into Washington in campaign contributions and lobbying, you won't read about extortion from politicians introducing legislation to expropriate people's financial businesses unless they paid up. You also won't read about the constant movement of financial innovators to get away from the whole messy business of power politics, organizing off-shore, using private vehicles and leaving regulated businesses to come up with better solutions. It's always politicians trying to draw these into the regulatory framework, where they are forced to render unto Caesar, it's not financial innovators lining up to buy political backing for their ideas. Even the harm done by the gigantic financial institutions built entirely by Washington is blamed on Wall Street, not Washington.

I'm not defending Wall Street here, just pointing out there are two sides to the story. Wall Street, and more generally global financial innovation fighting entrenched local traditional practices, has done both good and bad. Mostly it does things that some people will consider good and others will consider bad. The one point of strong agreement I have with the authors is that a system of crony capitalism grew up, and led to a lot of our current problems. Personally, I would attack all crony capitalism, not just financial, as killing it in one place just tends to encourage it to spring up in another. We have crony defense contractors, medical companies, agribusinesses among many others. I grant that financial cronies are more dangerous than the others (except maybe defense contractors) but they are more alike than different. And the fundamental reform has to be political. If someone is handing out government money, it's pointless to outlaw taking it, because someone will always find a way to break the law, and then repay the giver. Stopping the handout is the point.

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